Taking the Academic Publishing Industry’s Pulse at Frankfurt
Earlier this month, during the STM Annual Conference and Frankfurt Book Fair, we took the opportunity to gauge industry sentiment by running a quick “Publishing Pulse Check.” Our short survey asked stakeholders across academic publishing — from publishers and platform providers to service firms and consultants — how they view current and future market conditions, their biggest challenges, and where they plan to invest in the year ahead. With 32 responses, the findings offer a snapshot of sector mood rather than a definitive picture, but the results hint at an industry divided between caution and optimism.
Publishers are losing confidence, while vendors and service providers stay upbeat
Perhaps the most interesting finding from our survey is the confidence gap between publishers and non-publishers (technology vendors, service providers, consultants/advisories). 8 of the 13 (62%) publishers who responded told us that current market conditions are worse than they were this time last year, while 7 out of 19 (37%) non-publishers thought that conditions are worse right now. Publishers are feeling the strain of research integrity issues, shifting business models and squeezed library budget. Unfortunately, publishers don’t anticipate conditions improving anytime soon. Only 3 (23%) publishers who responded are optimistic about market conditions over the next 12 months, while 12 (63%) of the non-publisher respondents (technology vendors, service providers, and consultants) are optimistic.
Geopolitical uncertainty eclipses integrity and peer review
Geopolitical uncertainty was the most commonly cited major challenge for publishers (9/13, 69%) which contributes to their cautious outlook. Publishers are very much exposed to potential policy shifts which directly impact revenue streams. Non-publishers also flagged policy uncertainty (53%) but seem more shielded from publishers’ short-term revenue pressures. Interestingly, research integrity and peer review ranked low in our survey. While these are clearly pressing issues that publishers are grappling with, only 3 respondents cited research integrity management and 2 mentioned peer review recruitment as major challenges. This puts into perspective just how big a challenge publishers perceive geopolitical uncertainty. However, when it comes to investment priorities, research integrity emerges as the second highest for publishers (6/13), followed by data & analytics capabilities (5/13, 38%). Unable to control geopolitics, publishers are focusing on what they can: strengthening research integrity, data and analytics to guide decisions in an uncertain market.
AI investment surges – but for different reasons
As we observed in the ‘safeguarding the future of society publishing’ white paper, AI again emerges as both an opportunity and a threat for publishers. 38% of publishers cited ‘Pace of AI and technology change’ as one of their biggest challenges, and 31% are prioritising investment in AI and automation. More publishers (54%) are investing in workflow efficiency overall, aiming for operational gains rather than relying solely on AI.
In contrast, 10 of 19 (53%) non-publishers are prioritising AI & automation investment – their highest investment area. This makes sense given that technology vendors and service providers are actively building AI-powered solutions to address the efficiency challenges their clients face. Their optimism about market conditions likely stems from confidence that their AI solutions will deliver the ROI and efficiency gains that budget-pressured publishers desperately need. It’s unclear if publishers will adopt solutions as fast as vendors expect — but both agree efficiency is the priority. Non-publishers feel this pressure acutely, with 14 of 19 (74%) citing budget or funding pressures as one of their biggest challenges.
Collaboration and openness hint at a way forward
We gave respondents a free text option to share what they see as the biggest opportunity in academic publishing in 2026, and 14 people responded. 8 of 14 responses (57%) featured ‘AI’ – but with diverse perspectives. Respondents highlighted opportunities spanning operational efficiency, new product development, AI licensing, research amplification, and the need for education on ethical AI use in research. One respondent captured the breadth of this challenge: “Learning and training the scholarly community on ethical use of AI both in conducting and writing research but also in learning to discern through critical research evaluation.”
Several respondents emphasised collaboration, including one standout call to action: “Break down competitive barriers to tackle industry-wide challenges. If not now, when?” This reflects a growing recognition that many of the challenges facing the industry may be too significant for individual organisations to tackle alone.
Open science also surfaced as an opportunity — through innovation in peer review and new content formats. Yet only 9% are investing in open access transition, suggesting that while the sector sees promise in openness, budgets are focused on operational challenges for now.
Conclusion
Our Frankfurt survey reveals an industry at an inflection point. Publishers’ pessimism is rooted in factors largely beyond their control – geopolitical uncertainty, policy shifts, and budget pressures that directly threaten revenue streams. Their response has been to focus investment on the controllables: workflow efficiency (54%), research integrity infrastructure (46%) and data analytics capabilities (38%). These are strategic bets on maintaining credibility and improving operations in an uncertain environment.
Non-publishers, by contrast, are optimistic because they see themselves as part of the solution. Technology vendors and service providers are investing heavily in AI and automation (53%) to deliver the efficiency gains and ROI that their budget-constrained clients need. Their confidence rests on the belief that publishers will adopt these solutions at scale.
We’ll be running the Publishing Pulse Check again at Frankfurt 2026. Will publishers’ caution prove prudent, or will optimism fuel the next wave of innovation?
